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CBRE GROUP

CBRE Group, Inc. is the world’s largest commercial real estate services and investment firm, with 2018 revenues of $21.3 billion and more than 90,000 employees (excluding affiliate offices). CBRE has been included in the Fortune 500 since 2008, ranking #146 in 2019. CBRE offers a broad range of integrated services, including facilities, transaction and project management; property management; investment management; appraisal and valuation; property leasing; strategic consulting; property sales; mortgage services and development services.

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CBRE Global Investors, combined with CBRE Clarion Securities and CBRE Caledon, is one of the world’s leading real asset investment managers with $107 billion in assets under management.

Built up over more than 40 years, our unparalleled platform is focused on real assets, giving our institutional clients access to real estate and infrastructure in the Americas, Europe and Asia Pacific. Our clients benefit from a complete range of investment solutions including equity and debt, direct and indirect, and listed and unlisted strategies.

Trammell Crow Company, founded in Dallas, Texas in 1948, is one of the nation’s oldest and most prolific developers of, and investors in, commercial real estate.The CBRE Global Investors and Trammell Crow Company platforms make up the Real Estate Investments division of CBRE Group.

The Real Estate Investments division is led by
Danny Queenan, Global CEO, Real Estate Investments.

BLOGS

Regularly released content on the state of the real estate and infrastructure industry are produced by our subject matter experts and shared on their blogs. A selection of them can be found below.

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EUROPE WATCH

Scorching temperatures in June and July contrasted with Europe’s cooling economic activity. GDP in the eurozone grew by 0.2% in Q2, down from 0.4% in the previous quarter, with softening global demand, declining manufacturing output and weaker consumer spending all behind the slowdown. Persistent industrial weakness remained a drag on Germany, and there are signs that the industrial recession in the export powerhouse might deepen further should global trade tensions continue. France, which stood out positively from a rather morose European picture in recent quarters, saw growth flatten due to tepid household spending. Italy’s economy remained lethargic, while Spain’s GDP growth continued to outperform growth in the single-currency zone, albeit with less gusto. In the UK, the economy is increasingly showing signs of losing steam. With the new prime minister, Boris Johnson, imposing an end-of-October deadline for Brexit – a deal agreed or not – the likelihood of a disorderly exit has risen given the short timeframe remaining to renegotiate a new agreement with the EU.

SHIFT IN MONETARY POLICY WEIGHS ON GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS

To improve the sagging global economy, central banks are switching to a more accommodative monetary policy. The Federal Reserve set the tone with a 25bps cut to the base rate at the end of July and the ECB announced plans to revive the program of quantitative easing that it wound down only last year. The ECB’s potential stimulus measures would include restarting purchases of government and corporate bonds and cutting the deposit rate. Expectations for a renewed loosening policy has led to further falls in the long-term government bond yields. The yield on 10-year German bonds – considered the safest investment in Europe – fell further into negative territory, whilst yields in Spain fell to their lowest point in two decades. In such a low interest rate environment, real estate is set to benefit, and the Spanish hotel market – one of the key investment hotspots in Europe – is emerging as a potential outperformer.

AUGUST 2019

3,466.85

0.2%

Euro Stoxx 50

0.00%

ECB Policy Rate

-0.448%

12.4 bps

10-yr. German Bond

$65.18

2.1%

Brent Crude

Data points through end of July 2019. Change represents month-over-month change.

10-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS IN THE EUROZONE
PRINCIPAL CONTRIBUTORS:
 
Alimou Bah
Karine Woodford
NO REST FOR HOTEL INVESTORS

2018 will be remembered as the best year ever for investment volumes in Spanish commercial real estate and although the market is not expected to surpass 11 billion euros of transactions in 2019, the investment volume this year may still be one of the best ones yet. Whilst retail and offices continue to dominate the country’s investment map, the growing importance of hotel investment is unquestionable. By the end of 2018, investment in Spain’s hotel sector had hit a new annual record, with a total volume of more than €4.8 billion, up 23% on 2017 and positioning Spain as the top country in continental Europe. The Canary Islands, the Balearic Islands, Andalusia and Madrid were the regions to receive the most investment in 2018, whilst the highest-value transaction during the year was Blackstone’s acquisition of Hispania, whose hotel portfolio was estimated to be worth approximately €1.7 billion. So, how exactly has Spain become such a focal point for hotel investment?

INTERNATIONAL TOURIST ARRIVALS (MILLIONS) VS.
VOLUME OF HOTEL INVESTMENT BY SPANISH REGION

Source: INE, Christie & co

SPAIN BREAKS ITS TOURISM RECORD

Firstly, Spain continues to be the world’s second most visited country after France, according to the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), with foreign tourism registering the highest growth in the history of Spanish tourism in 2018, both in terms of number of tourists visiting Spain and the value of their visits. In fact, each year for the last six years, more tourists have visited Spain than in the previous year and 2019 is set to continue this trend. As a result, tourism continues to be a mainstay of Spain’s economic growth, representing 11.9 percent of GDP in 2018, with the sector generating €142 billion ($162 billion) in sales, 2 percent more than in 2017. The significance of the Spanish hotel industry is further underlined by the fact that many of its key players – such as Melia Hotels, NH Hotel Group or Riu Hotels – operate beyond the borders of Spain, thus attracting key international investors further.

REVPAR – COMPARISON OF H1 2018 VS. H1 2019

Source: STR

HOTEL ROOM BOOM

As we all know, strong tourism demand translates into strong hotel performance. 2018 registered the highest growth in the last 18 years in the principal indicators of hotel revenue and returns (RevPar, ARR and Occupancy). According to STR’s latest study, Madrid and Barcelona saw RevPAR (Revenue per available room) growth of 15.1% and 12.7% respectively during the first half of 2019. Furthermore, Spain as a whole recorded 37 consecutive months of growth in revenue per available room between March 2015 and April 2018. This strong performance growth across all markets of Spain’s hotel industry has driven investment interest to surge. The Catalan hotel sector is now bouncing back following a somewhat challenging 2018 due to the effect of the political crisis and of the moratorium imposed by the local government a couple of years ago restricting the construction of new projects in the city centre. Madrid, on the other hand, is experiencing unprecedented momentum, with 2018 registering the highest growth in the principal indicators in the last 18 years. Twelve new large-scale projects are under way in the city centre (new operators and re-openings) which, as of 2020, will add 1,200 new five-star rooms to the overall supply – thereby doubling the capital’s stock in that market segment.

ADR – COMPARISON OF H1 2018 VS. H1 2019

Source: CBRE Global Investors

A BRIGHT FUTURE

Despite solid forecasts regarding the continued strength of the Spanish economy, investment activity in the hotel sector is expected to decelerate slightly compared with the record achieved last year. This is a function of investors adopting a more cautious demeanor in their capital deployment but also fewer hotel portfolios on the market. Having said that, the Spanish hotel sector continues to prove its resilience to macroeconomic and political uncertainties with tourism figures booming and all the major markets, from Marbella to Madrid and Bilbao to Barcelona seeing attractive occupancy levels and financial metrics.

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Please note that the content of this report is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation. Any opinions are solely those of the Strategy & Research Team of CBRE Global Investors and are subject to change without notice, and may not be consistent with market trends or future events. This research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it as accurate, updated or complete, and it should not be relied on as such.

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