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OUR COMPANY AFFILIATES

CBRE GROUP

CBRE Group, Inc. is the world’s largest commercial real estate services and investment firm, with 2018 revenues of $21.3 billion and more than 90,000 employees (excluding affiliate offices). CBRE has been included in the Fortune 500 since 2008, ranking #146 in 2019. CBRE offers a broad range of integrated services, including facilities, transaction and project management; property management; investment management; appraisal and valuation; property leasing; strategic consulting; property sales; mortgage services and development services.

INVESTMENT SERVICES

CBRE Global Investors, combined with CBRE Clarion Securities and CBRE Caledon, is one of the world’s leading real asset investment managers with $107 billion in assets under management.

Built up over more than 40 years, our unparalleled platform is focused on real assets, giving our institutional clients access to real estate and infrastructure in the Americas, Europe and Asia Pacific. Our clients benefit from a complete range of investment solutions including equity and debt, direct and indirect, and listed and unlisted strategies.

Trammell Crow Company, founded in Dallas, Texas in 1948, is one of the nation’s oldest and most prolific developers of, and investors in, commercial real estate.The CBRE Global Investors and Trammell Crow Company platforms make up the Real Estate Investments division of CBRE Group.

The Real Estate Investments division is led by
Danny Queenan, Global CEO, Real Estate Investments.

BLOGS

Regularly released content on the state of the real estate and infrastructure industry are produced by our subject matter experts and shared on their blogs. A selection of them can be found below.

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AMERICAS WATCH

It seems hitting a 10-year anniversary for the U.S. economic expansion was a jinx. Following this anniversary, the month of August witnessed another yield curve inversion, a lower revision to Q2 GDP and increased volatility in global equity markets as concerns about global economic growth and increasing tensions in the U.S.-China Trade War took center stage. Given the rise in uncertainty amongst investors, long-term bond yields have compressed considerably in the past few weeks, and the idea of another rate cut by the Federal Reserve has come into the fray. As a result of all this, business confidence and investment has taken a significant hit over the past few months, with the few remaining economic bright spots still seen in the tight labor market, wage growth and steady upbeat consumer confidence. In the near term, movements in the labor market and consumer confidence should be monitored closely for any deceleration as this could spill over into consumption, which has driven this late-cycle expansion. In the meantime, property fundamentals remain solid across most sectors and should remain intact for the remainder of 2019.

BUSINESS CONFIDENCE BEING TESTED

Business confidence remains near its current cycle lows despite a mild uptick in early August. Increased stock market volatility, a back-and-forward in trade disputes, and bond market yield inversion have all tested business leaders. Moreover, growing concerns over a deceleration in the global economy, led by lower production out of China and slower growth in E.U.’s largest economy, Germany, continue to cloud the economic landscape. The decline in business confidence should be monitored closely in the near term as consistently low confidence levels may lead to less hiring as business uncertainty increases.

SEPTEMBER 2019

2,926.46

1.8%

S&P 500

2.0-2.25%

=

Fed Funds Rate

1.50%

52 bps

10-yr. T-Note

$55.06

15.5%

Oil*

*WTI Crude Oil Spot Price. Data points through end of August 2019. Change represents month-over-month change.

BUSINESS CONFIDENCE
PRINCIPAL CONTRIBUTOR:
 
Jeremiah Lee
Rene Moreira
TRADE TENSIONS KICKING IN

The ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing indices have declined by seven and three points respectively over the last twelve months. The tit-for-tat trade war creating increased uncertainty amongst businesses has been largely to blame and both indices are near their levels seen in the run up to the 2016 election. The Non-Manufacturing index by and large has been less impacted by the trade war, but the lack of a deal is becoming a significant drag for both indices. The Purchasing Managers index dipped below 50 for the first time since August 2016. Although the Non-Manufacturing index suggest that the prolonged economic expansion has some room to run, the Manufacturing index is flashing yellow.

ISM INDICES
Source: Institute of Supply Management
IMPORTS FLAT, EXPORTS TURN NEGATIVE

Despite a healthy U.S. economy, growth in imports were flat in Q2 2019 as the trade war with China and rising dollar begins to show up in trade volumes. U.S. exports saw the worst of it with annual growth turning negative for the first time since early 2016, declining by 1.6% year-over-year. Although a healthy U.S. consumer should be a boost for trade, the deterioration in a trade resolution between China and the U.S. will ultimately lead to higher prices for consumers. As U.S. exports become less competitive abroad as the dollar continues to appreciate export trade volumes are expected to decelerate further in the near term.

SSource: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
FIXED INVESTMENT GROWTH ERODING

Real private fixed investment continued to decelerate through the first half of 2019, following the trend witnessed since the first half of 2018. Rising economic uncertainty in the States and abroad means fewer reasons for manufacturers and businesses to continue investing. Both manufacturing and overall private business sectors investment posted year-over-year gains of 2.6% in Q2 2019, the slowest pace since late 2016 and early 2017 period. The service sector, which was almost immune to the ongoing trade war, has now lost its growth edge over the manufacturing sector. The effect of corporate tax cuts has completely faded in the backdrop and business investment growth should be monitored closely in combination with business sentiment moving forward.

BUSINESS INVESTMENT
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
INVESTORS TURN TO CORPORATE BONDS FOR YIELD

Despite rising concerns of a global economic slowdown and flashing recession indicators, lower tier corporate bond spreads remain at a level consistent with their long-term averages. This is largely driven by foreign capital inflows searching for higher yields and sustained faith in the health of the U.S. economy, particularly in light of the recent reversal in Fed monetary policy. As of July 2019, the corporate-bond-to-10-year-Treasury spread stood at 134 bps versus its long-term historical average of 138 bps. Since year-end 2018, the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen 94 bps, while BBB corporate bond yields fell by 119 bps.

CORPORATE BOND-TREASURY SPREADS
Source: Thomson Reuters
Related Content

Please note that the content of this report is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation. Any opinions are solely those of the Strategy & Research Team of CBRE Global Investors and are subject to change without notice, and may not be consistent with market trends or future events. This research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it as accurate, updated or complete, and it should not be relied on as such.

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