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CBRE GROUP

CBRE Group, Inc. is the world’s largest commercial real estate services and investment firm, with 2017 revenues of $14.2 billion and more than 80,000 employees (excluding affiliate offices). CBRE has been included in the Fortune 500 since 2008, ranking #207 in 2018. CBRE offers a broad range of integrated services, including facilities, transaction and project management; property management; investment management; appraisal and valuation; property leasing; strategic consulting; property sales; mortgage services and development services.

INVESTMENT SERVICES

CBRE Global Investors, combined with CBRE Clarion Securities and CBRE Caledon, is one of the world’s leading real asset investment managers with $105 billion in assets under management.

Built up over more than 40 years, our unparalleled platform is focused on real assets, giving our institutional clients access to real estate and infrastructure in the Americas, Europe and Asia Pacific. Our clients benefit from a complete range of investment solutions including equity and debt, direct and indirect, and listed and unlisted strategies.

Trammell Crow Company, founded in Dallas, Texas in 1948, is one of the nation’s oldest and most prolific developers of, and investors in, commercial real estate.The CBRE Global Investors and Trammell Crow Company platforms make up the Real Estate Investments division of CBRE Group.

The Real Estate Investments division is led by
Danny Queenan, Global CEO, Real Estate Investments.

BLOGS

Regularly released content on the state of the real estate and infrastructure industry are produced by our subject matter experts and shared on their blogs. A selection of them can be found below.

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AMERICAS WATCH

As we embark upon whatever 2019 holds in store for us, one thing is clear – tumultuous headlines are the baseline now. Looking back, the trade war rhetoric was clearly the noise that masked the fantastic performance of the labor market egged on by the tax cuts and other stimulus. Wage growth also picked up some real momentum delivering good news for consumers and retailers. Turmoil in equity markets and the din around the government shutdown in the last quarter was not the best bookend to an otherwise good year. Looking ahead, think moderation. As the economy maneuvers its way into the longest post-war expansionary period, expect the boost from fiscal stimulus to fade. Tighter labor markets and higher interest rates will lead to slower growth. What keeps the economy humming along in 2019 will depend on how consumer and business sentiment responds to changing credit conditions and screaming headlines. Here’s to a 2019 that stays on track!

LABOR MARKET STRENGTH

The labor market witnessed a strong finale to 2018, although some key labor indicators could still fare better. The U.S. economy added 312,000 new jobs in December and the unemployment rate trended up to 3.9% as more people re-entered the labor force. Healthcare and leisure & hospitality witnessed the largest gains adding 91,000 jobs. Additionally, manufacturing was a bright spot in the latest job report adding 32,000 jobs showing that the sector is almost unfazed by ongoing trade tensions. The increase in the labor participation rate to 63.1% was a strong sign, but it remains within bounds of what the U.S. has witnessed since late-2013. As wages continue to rise given the low unemployment rate figures the labor participation rate should budge higher as more people are enticed to re-enter the work force.

JANUARY 2019

2,506.85

-9.2%

S&P 500

2.25-2.50%

25 bps

Fed Funds Rate

2.69%

-32 bps

10-yr. T-Note

$45.41

-10.8%

Oil*

*WTI Crude Oil Spot Price. Data points through end of December 2018. Change represents month-over-month change.

NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT & UNEMPLOYMENT

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

PRINCIPAL CONTRIBUTORS:
Shubhra Jha
Jeremiah Lee
Rene Moreira
AS GOOD AS IT GETS?

Buoyed by the continued strength of U.S. consumers and positive inventory investment, GDP increased by 3.4% in 3Q18, following an impressive 4.2% increase the previous quarter. Increased government spending and private investment also contributed to the strong quarter. Net exports were the largest drag on economic growth this quarter, as the trade deficit widened into the second half of 2018. Although key economic indicators point to the further near-term growth, headwinds in the form of slowing economic growth globally, rising trade tensions, financial market volatility and the dwindling effects of recent tax cuts weigh on growth expectations moving forward.

CONTRIBUTIONS TO REAL GDP
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE TAKES A HIT

The bloom is off the rose. Some of the negative news related to volatile equity markets, trade wars and softness in housing markets made its way to the consumers’ expectations about the future health of the economy. The confidence index dropped for the second consecutive month in December, off nearly 10 points from its cyclical peak of 137.9 in October 2018. Despite a strong labor market and a stable economy, consumers are spooked by the headlines and the realization that stimulus from tax cuts is not sustainable. The six-month MA is also likely to end its upward trend quickly but remains elevated and indicative of a consumer mindset that is still quite optimistic about the current economic cycle.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
Source: The Conference Board
RETAIL SALES MOMENTUM INTO THE HOLIDAY SEASON

A reflection of healthy job creation and rising wages, supported by the recent fiscal stimulus and declining energy prices, retail sales continued to rise at an above-average pace through November 2018, increasing by close to 5.0% y-o-y. Looking forward, the waning effects of the tax cuts, a cooling housing market and recent financial market retrenchment will likely restrain retail sales growth relative to recent history.

RETAIL SALES
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
HOUSING SECTOR IS SHIFTING

The U.S. housing sector is beginning to shift as it faces a myriad of headwinds from new tax laws to affordability. Housing starts have had a volatile 2018, but remain above the current cycle average which should aide the affordability front as more inventory increases homebuying opportunity. However, the rise in interest rates, new federal tax laws affecting homeownership, and demographics have simultaneously dampened demand for existing and new family homes as evidenced by the decline in sales volume for both segments. While home prices continue to climb, they are doing so at a decelerated pace after multiple metros in the nation reached new all-time highs. The recent divergence in the declining level of housing starts to the increase in the months supply of homes on the market should be monitored closely.

HOUSING MARKET
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
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This information is for our clients and investors only. Please note that the content of this report is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation. Any opinions are solely those of the Strategy & Research Team of CBRE Global Investors and are subject to change without notice, and may not be consistent with market trends or future events. This research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it as accurate, updated or complete, and it should not be relied on as such.

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