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CBRE Global Investors, combined with CBRE Clarion Securities and CBRE Caledon, is one of the world’s leading real asset investment managers with $105 billion in assets under management.

Built up over more than 40 years, our unparalleled platform is focused on real assets, giving our institutional clients access to real estate and infrastructure in the Americas, Europe and Asia Pacific. Our clients benefit from a complete range of investment solutions including equity and debt, direct and indirect, and listed and unlisted strategies.

Trammell Crow Company, founded in Dallas, Texas in 1948, is one of the nation’s oldest and most prolific developers of, and investors in, commercial real estate.The CBRE Global Investors and Trammell Crow Company platforms make up the Real Estate Investments division of CBRE Group.

The Real Estate Investments division is led by
Danny Queenan, Global CEO, Real Estate Investments.

BLOGS

Regularly released content on the state of the real estate and infrastructure industry are produced by our subject matter experts and shared on their blogs. A selection of them can be found below.

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AMERICAS WATCH

The final U.S. Watch Series for 2018 is here! As the cheery and hectic holiday season approaches for U.S. consumers, the domestic economy is facing a dose of uncertainty. Future U.S. trade policy with China hangs in the balance following the G-20 Summit in Argentina, while geopolitical risks are brewing with a Brexit cliff-hanger in Europe and political troubles in the Middle East. However, whether it be employment and wages, business and consumer confidence, trade volumes, or corporate profits…. multiple indicators are showing that the U.S. economy is healthy all things considered. While the economic optimism is sound, mounting inflationary pressures from economic growth will lead the FOMC to follow through with continued increases in the Federal Funds rate, despite Fed Chairman Powell’s recent commentary stating that the “neutral rate” was near. Tighter monetary policy in the form of higher short-term rates and a shrinking Fed balance sheet will test global markets. Any amalgamation of the above risks could derail the current economic expansion which is over nine years in the running.

BUSINESS CONFIDENCE IS QUESTIONABLE

Business confidence continues to pull back as 2018 ends and expectations of slower growth take hold as the cycle matures. The latest reading saw the lowest level in almost 24 months, last seen since the period leading up to the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election. The buoyant optimism around corporate tax cuts and expected pull back in regulations that defined the pick-up in business confidence earlier in the year has receded. The continued trade war rhetoric and rising geopolitical risks, combined with domestic labor shortages and increasing interest rates, are dampening future growth expectations. However, most measures of economic growth remain strong, which should result in balanced business conditions for the immediate future.

DECEMBER 2018

2,760.16

1.8%

S&P 500

2-2.25%

Fed Funds Rate

3.01%

-15 bps

10-yr. T-Note

$50.93

-22%

Oil*

*WTI Crude Oil Spot Price. Data points through end of November 2018. Change represents month-over-month change.

BUSINESS CONFIDENCE

Source: Moody’s Analytics

PRINCIPAL CONTRIBUTORS:
Shubhra Jha
Rene Moreira
HEADWINDS DON'T SEEM TO BE HITTING

Despite a multitude of rising risk factors creating uncertainty, the ISM Manufacturing and Nonmanufacturing indices have yet to witness any discernable impact. The Manufacturing Index has declined for two consecutive months after hitting a 14-year high in August but remains elevated and well above 50 as fundamentals of the domestic economy remain strong and supportive. Growth in the services sector of the economy has also been flawless as the index posted only a modest decline from its 13-year high in September 2018 as expansion in professional services remains robust. Most respondents remain upbeat about near-term growth, although the risks of further tariffs and labor shortage concerns will remain on the minds of many.

ISM INDICES
Source: Institute of Supply Management
THE EVER-WIDENING TRADE GAP

The ongoing tit-for-tat trade tactics employed between the U.S. and China since early 2018 seem to have only had a miniscule impact on domestic trade. U.S. exports declined by 1.7% in 3Q2018 from the previous quarter, although are still up considerably from the same time last year. Appetite for imports by consumers seems to be unstoppable as import volumes to the U.S. have not witnessed a decline and are up north of 10% year-over-year. The national trade deficit now stands near its widest point since July 2008. The St. Louis Fed’s Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index continued to rise, growing by 3.5% from 2Q2018 as trade continues to hum along despite tariffs. The rise in the value of the U.S. dollar is boosting consumer buying power for foreign goods which should quell any near-term uncertainty. But discussions between the U.S. and China on trade relations should be monitored closely.

EXPORTS VS. IMPORTS
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
BUSINESSES REMAIN ON AN EXPANSION TRACK

Business investment for machinery & equipment and private sector businesses continued to rise based on the latest 3Q2018 readings. Manufacturing investment posted solid gains, but is growing slower compared to the private sector as trade policies are beginning to take effect. Investment in machinery and equipment grew 5.8% YoY, while private business investment grew by 6.4% over the same time. Although the $1.5 trillion tax break for corporations was expected to be the impetus to accelerate domestic business investment growth, the data has failed to show significant lasting improvements with growth levels in line with those seen in 2017. It is quite possible, given the deceleration in business confidence, that businesses remain uncertain and wish to remain on the sidelines until trade policy guidance becomes more concrete..

BUSINESS INVESTMENT
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
CORPORATE PROFITS SET NEW CYCLE HIGH

The endurance of the domestic economy has pushed after-tax corporate profit levels to new cycle highs, reaching nearly $ 1.8T in 3Q2018. As a percent of GDP, after-tax profits remained at 9.6%, levels in line from the previous quarter and the trailing twelve months, and still within the 8-10% range seen throughout this cycle. Although the reduced corporate tax rate introduced late last year has played its part in profit growth, growth rates have only marginally improved. Despite the solid increases which should have equity markets cheering with glee, recent volatility has investors taking a long hard look at how much room is there left to grow past the next twelve months.

CORPORATE PROFITS AFTER TAX
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
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This information is for our clients and investors only. Please note that the content of this report is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation. Any opinions are solely those of the Strategy & Research Team of CBRE Global Investors and are subject to change without notice, and may not be consistent with market trends or future events. This research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it as accurate, updated or complete, and it should not be relied on as such.

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