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OUR COMPANY AFFILIATES

CBRE GROUP

CBRE Group, Inc. is the world’s largest commercial real estate services and investment firm, with 2017 revenues of $14.2 billion and more than 80,000 employees (excluding affiliate offices). CBRE has been included in the Fortune 500 since 2008, ranking #207 in 2018. CBRE offers a broad range of integrated services, including facilities, transaction and project management; property management; investment management; appraisal and valuation; property leasing; strategic consulting; property sales; mortgage services and development services.

INVESTMENT SERVICES

CBRE Global Investors, combined with CBRE Clarion Securities and CBRE Caledon, is one of the world’s leading real asset investment managers with $105 billion in assets under management.

Built up over more than 40 years, our unparalleled platform is focused on real assets, giving our institutional clients access to real estate and infrastructure in the Americas, Europe and Asia Pacific. Our clients benefit from a complete range of investment solutions including equity and debt, direct and indirect, and listed and unlisted strategies.

Trammell Crow Company, founded in Dallas, Texas in 1948, is one of the nation’s oldest and most prolific developers of, and investors in, commercial real estate.The CBRE Global Investors and Trammell Crow Company platforms make up the Real Estate Investments division of CBRE Group.

The Real Estate Investments division is led by
Danny Queenan, Global CEO, Real Estate Investments.

BLOGS

Regularly released content on the state of the real estate and infrastructure industry are produced by our subject matter experts and shared on their blogs. A selection of them can be found below.

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AMERICAS WATCH

It seems for every positive headline on the state of the U.S. economy, there is a negative headline reflecting rising economic uncertainty at home and abroad. From the inverted yield curve signaling a potential impending recession, slowing economic growth in Europe and Asia, and the ongoing trade war with China, these rising headwinds continue to cast a shadow on the still-expanding U.S. economy. All the while, the employment landscape in the United States is healthy. The unemployment rate is near historic lows and above average wage growth is enticing people back into the labor force. However, the pace of economic growth has slowed. Consumer and business confidence have declined, and the housing market has taken a breather after robust annual price gains in the last few years. Additionally, the downward revision to 4Q 2018 GDP growth and the increasingly dovish stance by the Federal Reserve surprised equity and bond markets. Although the economic uncertainties have increased, the U.S. economy is expected to continue expanding, though at a decelerating pace, through the near term.

LABOR MARKET RESILIENCE

Although the recent jobs report was a disappointment, the tepid February reading essentially offset January’s dramatic spike in job creation. Increased professional and business services hiring during the month was counterbalanced by a decline in construction payrolls. With a three-month moving average of 186,000 jobs through February 2019, the U.S. economy remains in growth mode. Wages continue to rise, while the unemployment rate trended downward after rising in January in response to the government shutdown. Despite the economy’s continued performance, the dissipating stimulus from recent federal tax cuts, a soft housing market, and disappointing retail sales, combined with rising headwinds in the form of weaker global economic growth and elevated geopolitical risks generate expectations for more modest job creation going forward.

APRIL 2019

2,834.40

1.8%

S&P 500

2.25-2.50%

Fed Funds Rate

2.41%

31 bps

10-yr. T-Note

$60.14

7.8%

Oil*

*WTI Crude Oil Spot Price. Data points through end of March 2019. Change represents month-over-month change.

NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT & UNEMPLOYMENT

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

PRINCIPAL CONTRIBUTORS:
 
Jeremiah Lee
Rene Moreira
Joey Valenzuela
YE 2018 NOT AS JOLLY

GDP increased by 2.2% in 4Q18, a downward revision from the 2.6% first reported in February and below the 3.4% annualized rate reported in the quarter prior. The deceleration was driven by multiple factors. Non-defense government spending declined, and private inventory growth was flat after a strong third quarter. Additionally, the growth in demand for non-durable goods decelerated after strong gains through mid-year 2018. Demand for services also slowed to its lowest 4Q reading since 2015. Although the U.S. economy is expected to expand going forward, slowing economic growth will weigh on growth expectations.

CONTRIBUTIONS TO REAL GDP
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
CAUTIOUSLY CONFIDENT

Following a strong showing in February, consumer confidence dipped in March 2019, as the combined effects of stock market volatility and a tepid February jobs report weigh on the consumer psyche. The confidence index dropped to 124.1 in March 2019 from 131.4 the previous month but remains well above its long-term historical average of 91.0. While consumers remain relatively optimistic, the index’s continued decline from its late-2018 peak indicates slower growth ahead.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
Source: The Conference Board
RETAIL SPENDING SLOWS AFTER STRONG START TO YEAR

After recording a strong start to 2019, total retail sales growth, excluding autos declined by over 40 bps from January to February. Although a slowdown in consumer spending is a signal of a slowing economy, more practical factors including winter weather across the nation and delayed tax refunds likely contributed to the recent dip in retail sales growth. With expectations for more modest economic growth going forward, it is likely that retail sales will remain in a lower gear compared to recent years.

RETAIL SALES
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
HOUSING SECTOR SENDING MIXED SIGNALS

As the peak home-selling season begins, the U.S. housing sector appears to be sending mixed signals. After several years of robust home price appreciation, the rate of growth has slowed. While a positive for aspiring homeowners, slower home price appreciation has led to more muted construction activity, as evidenced by the 9% drop in the annualized home start rate between January and February. Coinciding with the decline in home starts, the months-of-supply inventory of new homes fell from 6.5 to 6.1 months. Since the end of 2017 the amount of monthly supply has been trending upward, an indication that homes are sitting on the market longer. However, 30-year fixed mortgage rates dropped over 20 bps in the last week of March, its largest weekly decline in over a decade. As such, more potential homebuyers may be encouraged to pursue homeownership if they are able to find a home within their budget.

HOUSING MARKET
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
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This information is for our clients and investors only. Please note that the content of this report is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation. Any opinions are solely those of the Strategy & Research Team of CBRE Global Investors and are subject to change without notice, and may not be consistent with market trends or future events. This research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it as accurate, updated or complete, and it should not be relied on as such.

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